MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Kilian
Caleb Kilian
SF · P
Change to
Elvis Alvarado
ATH · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22, 1 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Caleb Kilian wins 2 (K, SV); Elvis Alvarado wins 2 (WHIP, W); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
96.8
Elvis Alvarado
98.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
13.6%
Elvis Alvarado
17.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
28.1%
Elvis Alvarado
32.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Kilian
31.2%
Elvis Alvarado
33.1%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
35.0%
Elvis Alvarado
48.4%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
7.8%
Elvis Alvarado
18.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Kilian
.290
Elvis Alvarado
.321
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Kilian
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.81
3.69
Elvis Alvarado
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.38
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Kilian
.9002.14
now 1.15
1.25
Elvis Alvarado
.9002.14
now 1.86
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
4037
now 29
20
Elvis Alvarado
4037
now 9
14
Winshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
.0006.60
now 2
12
Elvis Alvarado
.0006.60
now 2
25
Saveshigher is better
Caleb Kilian
.0004.40
now 3
23
Elvis Alvarado
.0004.40
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Kilian — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeElvis Alvarado — hold.conf 0.50
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