Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryRafael
15HR15
44R ←39
53RBI ←45
8SB ←0
.263AVG ←.228
Current Season
CaseyCategoryRafael
12HR ←7
27R ←26
33RBI ←30
5SB ←0
.289AVG ←.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Schmitt
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Casey Schmitt: 15 HR / 44 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).