Rest of Season Projection
CeddanneCategoryTroy
8HR ←7
33R33
33RBI →36
9SB ←4
.253AVG →.293
Current Season
CeddanneCategoryTroy
5HR ←2
23R23
23RBI →25
6SB ←3
.275AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ceddanne Rafaela
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.343 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.301 is 0.052 below the surface — regression coming
Troy Johnston
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.326)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.379 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Ceddanne Rafaela: 8 HR / 33 R. Troy Johnston: 7 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).