MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 27, 2026
Portrait of Chase Burns
Chase Burns
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo
PHI · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Chase Burns wins 2 (K, W); Jesús Luzardo wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Chase Burns
97.8
Jesús Luzardo
97.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Chase Burns
15.6%
Jesús Luzardo
14.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Chase Burns
28.6%
Jesús Luzardo
29.9%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Chase Burns
34.0%
Jesús Luzardo
33.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Chase Burns
36.4%
Jesús Luzardo
31.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Chase Burns
8.6%
Jesús Luzardo
5.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Chase Burns
.276
Jesús Luzardo
.263
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Chase Burns
25.24
lg xERA 4.10
now 1.96
3.15
Jesús Luzardo
25.24
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.30
2.85
WHIPlower is better
Chase Burns
.9001.45
now 0.96
1.23
Jesús Luzardo
.9001.45
now 1.31
1.21

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Chase Burns
47.2086.80
now 72
58
Jesús Luzardo
47.2086.80
now 78
56
Winshigher is better
Chase Burns
.00010.40
now 7
48
Jesús Luzardo
.00010.40
now 4
24

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Sell HighChase Burns — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.94
BuyJesús Luzardo — buy.conf 0.92
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