Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryJustin
30K →36
3.70ERA →3.61
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W ←1–4
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryJustin
20K →26
2.33ERA ←3.54
0.93WHIP ←1.11
2W2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.74 is 0.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Justin Sterner
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.49)
Chase Shugart: 30 K / 3.70 ERA. Justin Sterner: 36 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).