Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategorySonny
105K ←89
4.44ERA →4.28
1.30WHIP ←1.31
6–12W →8–17
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategorySonny
57K ←41
2.95ERA ←3.06
1.16WHIP ←1.20
5W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
Sonny Gray
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.38)
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. Sonny Gray: 89 K / 4.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).