Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryJesús
13HR →14
53R ←32
40RBI →47
10SB ←2
.268AVG →.292
Current Season
CorbinCategoryJesús
7HR ←6
37R ←19
28RBI28
7SB ←1
.286AVG.287
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.342 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.362 is 0.031 below the surface — regression coming
Jesús Sánchez
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.350, +0.035 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll: 13 HR / 53 R. Jesús Sánchez: 14 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).