MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 15, 2026
Portrait of Erik Miller
Erik Miller
SF · P
Change to
Portrait of Matt Festa
Matt Festa
CLE · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Erik Miller.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and saves. Matt Festa’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Erik Miller wins 3 categories (K, ERA, SV); Matt Festa wins 1 (W); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Erik Miller
96.8
Matt Festa
92.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Erik Miller
13.1%
Matt Festa
12.5%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Erik Miller
31.4%
Matt Festa
22.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Erik Miller
24.5%
Matt Festa
31.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Erik Miller
30.6%
Matt Festa
40.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Erik Miller
8.1%
Matt Festa
9.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Erik Miller
.295
Matt Festa
.328
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Erik Miller
3.315.07
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.41
3.70
Matt Festa
3.315.07
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.68
3.74
WHIPlower is better
Erik Miller
1.171.48
now 1.41
1.24
Matt Festa
1.171.48
now 1.24
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Erik Miller
4032.60
now 24
27
Matt Festa
4032.60
now 27
26
Winshigher is better
Erik Miller
.0001.48
now 0
00
Matt Festa
.0001.48
now 1
11
Saveshigher is better
Erik Miller
.0005.60
now 2
14
Matt Festa
.0005.60
now 1
02
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeErik Miller — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeMatt Festa — hold.conf 0.50
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