Rest of Season Projection
FernandoCategoryTroy
14HR ←8
31R →38
27RBI →41
21SB ←5
.295AVG →.297
Current Season
FernandoCategoryTroy
1HR →2
21R →23
18RBI →25
14SB ←3
.266AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Fernando Tatis Jr.
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.347, +0.032 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 14 HR / 31 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).