Rest of Season Projection
GarrettCategoryJonny
8HR ←3
34R34
45RBI ←38
10SB →12
.217AVG →.249
Current Season
GarrettCategoryJonny
3HR ←2
21R ←17
28RBI ←19
6SB6
.230AVG →.269
What Each Player's System Trusts
Garrett Mitchell
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.402 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Jonny DeLuca
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.330 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Garrett Mitchell: 8 HR / 34 R. Jonny DeLuca: 3 HR / 34 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).