Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategorySpencer
12HR12
36R →52
31RBI →32
14SB ←5
.251AVG →.275
Current Season
JacksonCategorySpencer
2HR →7
13R →34
11RBI →21
5SB ←3
.276AVG ←.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Spencer Steer
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Spencer Steer: 12 HR / 52 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).