Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategorySpencer
5HR →13
38R →54
48RBI ←33
19SB ←5
.258AVG →.274
Current Season
JakeCategorySpencer
4HR →7
20R →34
25RBI ←21
10SB ←3
.288AVG ←.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Spencer Steer
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.377, +0.062 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Spencer Steer: 13 HR / 54 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).