Rest of Season Projection
JarrenCategorySpencer
12HR →13
45R →54
51RBI ←33
16SB ←5
.219AVG →.274
Current Season
JarrenCategorySpencer
10HR ←7
29R →34
33RBI ←21
10SB ←3
.219AVG →.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.308)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Spencer Steer
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.377, +0.062 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jarren Duran: 12 HR / 45 R. Spencer Steer: 13 HR / 54 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).