Rest of Season Projection
JasonCategoryJuan
33K →46
3.70ERA →3.64
1.24WHIP1.24
2–6W ←1–2
1–3SV1–2
Current Season
JasonCategoryJuan
11K →30
0.90ERA ←2.63
1.00WHIP ←1.08
2W ←1
1SV1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jason Adam
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.03 is 1.32 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Juan Morillo
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.18)
Jason Adam: 33 K / 3.70 ERA. Juan Morillo: 46 K / 3.64 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).