Rest of Season Projection
JonathanCategorySam
29K →36
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–3W ←1–2
0SV →1–3
Current Season
JonathanCategorySam
16K →26
4.67ERA →2.49
1.15WHIP →1.07
1W1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jonathan Bowlan
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.52 sits 1.58 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Sam Moll
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 is 0.89 above the ERA — regression coming
Jonathan Bowlan: 29 K / 3.70 ERA. Sam Moll: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).