Rest of Season Projection
SamCategoryTim
36K ←21
3.70ERA3.71
1.25WHIP →1.24
1–2W →2–5
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
SamCategoryTim
26K ←11
2.49ERA ←4.03
1.07WHIP ←1.21
1W →2
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Sam Moll
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 is 0.89 above the ERA — regression coming
Tim Hill
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.25)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Sam Moll: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Tim Hill: 21 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).