MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 23, 2026
Josh Hader
HOU · P
Change to
Portrait of Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Josh Hader.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA, WHIP, and saves. Riley O'Brien’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Josh Hader wins 3 categories (ERA, WHIP, SV); Riley O'Brien wins 2 (K, W).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Josh Hader
95.1
Riley O'Brien
98.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Josh Hader
20.8%
Riley O'Brien
11.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Josh Hader
39.7%
Riley O'Brien
23.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Josh Hader
42.8%
Riley O'Brien
28.8%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Josh Hader
22.2%
Riley O'Brien
40.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Josh Hader
2.8%
Riley O'Brien
7.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Josh Hader
.189
Riley O'Brien
.332
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Josh Hader
25.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Riley O'Brien
25.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.20
3.75
WHIPlower is better
Josh Hader
.9001.35
now 1.00
1.24
Riley O'Brien
.9001.35
now 0.99
1.25

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Josh Hader
4037.40
now 1
16
Riley O'Brien
4037.40
now 27
22
Winshigher is better
Josh Hader
.0004.20
now 0
00
Riley O'Brien
.0004.20
now 3
23
Saveshigher is better
Josh Hader
.00038.80
now 1
628
Riley O'Brien
.00038.80
now 14
814
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeJosh Hader — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeRiley O'Brien — hold.conf 0.50
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