MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Portrait of Lucas Erceg
Lucas Erceg
KC · P
Change to
Portrait of Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Riley O'Brien.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, WHIP, and saves.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Riley O'Brien wins 3 categories (K, WHIP, SV); Lucas Erceg wins 2 (ERA, W).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
97.2
Riley O'Brien
98.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
10.1%
Riley O'Brien
12.1%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
15.8%
Riley O'Brien
23.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
28.4%
Riley O'Brien
29.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Lucas Erceg
40.0%
Riley O'Brien
38.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Lucas Erceg
5.8%
Riley O'Brien
6.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Lucas Erceg
.322
Riley O'Brien
.323
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Lucas Erceg
27.58
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.33
3.71
Riley O'Brien
27.58
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.20
3.73
WHIPlower is better
Lucas Erceg
.9002.29
now 1.92
1.25
Riley O'Brien
.9002.29
now 0.99
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Lucas Erceg
4032.60
now 18
21
Riley O'Brien
4032.60
now 27
22
Winshigher is better
Lucas Erceg
1.204.80
now 3
24
Riley O'Brien
1.204.80
now 3
23
Saveshigher is better
Lucas Erceg
3.8018.20
now 11
713
Riley O'Brien
3.8018.20
now 14
815
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeLucas Erceg — hold.conf 0.55
Hold · wait & seeRiley O'Brien — hold.conf 0.50
Tweet