Rest of Season Projection
JuanCategoryTrent
42K ←24
3.71ERA3.70
1.26WHIP →1.24
1–2W →3–7
3–5SV ←0
Current Season
JuanCategoryTrent
30K ←6
6.00ERA →1.98
1.70WHIP →0.88
1W →2
3SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Juan Mejia
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.84 sits 0.26 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.388 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Trent Thornton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.160 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.08 is 3.08 above the ERA — regression coming
Juan Mejia: 42 K / 3.71 ERA. Trent Thornton: 24 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).