Rest of Season Projection
JuanCategoryTaylor
42K ←33
3.71ERA3.71
1.26WHIP →1.24
1–2W →1–2
3–5SV ←1–6
Current Season
JuanCategoryTaylor
30K ←17
6.00ERA →4.15
1.70WHIP →1.57
1W1
3SV ←2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Juan Mejia
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.84 sits 0.26 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.388 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Taylor Rogers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.361 elevated and unstable — the 5.33 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.41 is +0.31 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Juan Mejia: 42 K / 3.71 ERA. Taylor Rogers: 33 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).