Rest of Season Projection
JuanCategoryPJ
42K ←29
3.71ERA ←3.82
1.26WHIP ←1.27
1–2W →3–6
3–5SV ←2–3
Current Season
JuanCategoryPJ
30K ←18
6.00ERA →3.20
1.70WHIP →1.46
1W →3
3SV ←2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Juan Mejia
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.84 sits 0.26 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.388 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
PJ Poulin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.09 is 2.81 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Juan Mejia: 42 K / 3.71 ERA. PJ Poulin: 29 K / 3.82 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).