Rest of Season Projection
JustinCategoryPJ
36K ←29
3.61ERA ←3.82
1.24WHIP ←1.27
1–4W →3–6
0SV →2–3
Current Season
JustinCategoryPJ
26K ←18
3.54ERA →3.20
1.11WHIP ←1.46
2W →3
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Justin Sterner
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.49)
PJ Poulin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.09 is 2.81 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Justin Sterner: 36 K / 3.61 ERA. PJ Poulin: 29 K / 3.82 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).