Rest of Season Projection
JustinCategoryPaul
79K →126
3.84ERA →2.28
1.28WHIP →1.04
8–17W ←6–14
0SV0
Current Season
JustinCategoryPaul
40K →75
2.87ERA ←2.89
1.01WHIP →0.86
7W ←6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Justin Wrobleski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.84 is 0.97 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Justin Wrobleski: 79 K / 3.84 ERA. Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).