Rest of Season Projection
LawrenceCategoryRyan
8HR ←5
31R ←24
25RBI →54
7SB ←5
.223AVG →.229
Current Season
LawrenceCategoryRyan
3HR3
17R ←9
14RBI →20
4SB ←2
.164AVG →.278
What Each Player's System Trusts
Lawrence Butler
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.204 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Ryan Vilade
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.324 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.307 is 0.045 below the surface — regression coming
Lawrence Butler: 8 HR / 31 R. Ryan Vilade: 5 HR / 24 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).