Rest of Season Projection
LawrenceCategoryTristan
9HR ←6
32R →35
27RBI27
8SB8
.224AVG →.248
Current Season
LawrenceCategoryTristan
3HR ←2
17R →18
14RBI14
4SB4
.164AVG →.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
Lawrence Butler
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.210 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.291 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Lawrence Butler: 9 HR / 32 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).