MLB Daily DeltaWeek 15 · July 4, 2026
Portrait of Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito
SD · P
Change to
Portrait of Zebby Matthews
Zebby Matthews
MIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Lucas Giolito wins 2 (ERA, W); Zebby Matthews wins 2 (K, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
90.8
Zebby Matthews
95.1
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
9.8%
Zebby Matthews
11.2%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
13.0%
Zebby Matthews
20.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
19.0%
Zebby Matthews
28.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
43.8%
Zebby Matthews
37.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
4.2%
Zebby Matthews
12.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
.358
Zebby Matthews
.320
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Lucas Giolito
3.755.32
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.97
4.10
Zebby Matthews
3.755.32
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.63
4.21
WHIPlower is better
Lucas Giolito
.9002.02
now 1.74
1.30
Zebby Matthews
.9002.02
now 1.03
1.22

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Lucas Giolito
4094.20
now 6
37
Zebby Matthews
4094.20
now 24
69
Winshigher is better
Lucas Giolito
.00015
now 2
511
Zebby Matthews
.00015
now 1
24

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeLucas Giolito — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · leans sellZebby Matthews — hold.conf 0.60
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