Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryTristan
8HR ←6
26R →35
39RBI ←27
4SB →8
.246AVG →.248
Current Season
MattCategoryTristan
4HR ←2
14R →18
21RBI ←14
2SB →4
.211AVG →.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt Vierling
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.318)
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.291 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Matt Vierling: 8 HR / 26 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).