Rest of Season Projection
MichaelCategoryPaul
89K →126
5.26ERA →2.28
1.47WHIP →1.04
2–5W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
MichaelCategoryPaul
43K →75
7.22ERA →2.89
1.90WHIP →0.86
2W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Michael Lorenzen
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.89 +1.79 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Michael Lorenzen: 89 K / 5.26 ERA. Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).