Rest of Season Projection
NickCategorySteven
72K →80
4.37ERA ←4.49
1.31WHIP ←1.32
5–11W6–12
0SV0
Current Season
NickCategorySteven
41K ←35
1.62ERA ←4.67
1.11WHIP ←1.24
5W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Nick Martinez
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.51 +0.41 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Steven Matz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.86 is 0.38 above the ERA — regression coming
Nick Martinez: 72 K / 4.37 ERA. Steven Matz: 80 K / 4.49 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).