Rest of Season Projection
PaulCategorySpencer
126K ←98
2.28ERA ←4.24
1.04WHIP ←1.35
6–14W →10–21
0SV0
Current Season
PaulCategorySpencer
75K ←43
2.89ERA →1.34
0.86WHIP ←1.13
6W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.212 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.69 is 3.35 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Spencer Arrighetti: 98 K / 4.24 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).