Rest of Season Projection
JustinCategorySpencer
79K →98
3.84ERA ←4.24
1.28WHIP ←1.35
8–17W →10–21
0SV0
Current Season
JustinCategorySpencer
40K →43
2.87ERA →1.34
1.01WHIP ←1.13
7W7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Justin Wrobleski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.84 is 0.97 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.212 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.69 is 3.35 above the ERA — regression coming
Justin Wrobleski: 79 K / 3.84 ERA. Spencer Arrighetti: 98 K / 4.24 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).