Rest of Season Projection
SpencerCategoryZack
98K ←94
4.24ERA →3.90
1.35WHIP →1.27
10–21W ←6–13
0SV0
Current Season
SpencerCategoryZack
43K ←40
1.34ERA ←2.27
1.13WHIP →0.85
7W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.212 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.69 is 3.35 above the ERA — regression coming
Zack Wheeler
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.211 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.19 is 0.92 above the ERA — regression coming
Spencer Arrighetti: 98 K / 4.24 ERA. Zack Wheeler: 94 K / 3.90 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).