Rest of Season Projection
SamCategorySean
41K →68
3.62ERA ←3.77
1.26WHIP1.26
1–2W ←0–0
0SV0
Current Season
SamCategorySean
29K →42
2.22ERA ←5.08
1.09WHIP ←1.46
1W ←0
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Sam Bachman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.221 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Sean Manaea
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.343 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Sam Bachman: 41 K / 3.62 ERA. Sean Manaea: 68 K / 3.77 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).