Rest of Season Projection
ZacCategoryZack
91K ←70
4.96ERA ←5.39
1.40WHIP →1.37
3–7W →6–12
0SV0
Current Season
ZacCategoryZack
42K ←35
5.16ERA →5.01
1.47WHIP →1.37
3W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Zac Gallen
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.43 +1.33 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Zack Littell
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 6.09 is 1.08 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Zac Gallen: 91 K / 4.96 ERA. Zack Littell: 70 K / 5.39 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).