Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryBryce
71K ←60
4.76ERA →4.08
1.37WHIP →1.30
5–11W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryBryce
39K ←20
4.20ERA →1.71
1.47WHIP →0.86
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.12 +1.02 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Bryce Miller
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.203 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.34 is 0.80 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Civale: 71 K / 4.76 ERA. Bryce Miller: 60 K / 4.08 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).