Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryGermán
102K ←64
4.26ERA4.24
1.33WHIP →1.32
3–6W →5–11
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryGermán
64K ←19
5.55ERA ←5.76
1.39WHIP ←1.45
3W3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.34 is +0.24 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Germán Márquez
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.69)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Aaron Nola: 102 K / 4.26 ERA. Germán Márquez: 64 K / 4.24 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).