Rest of Season Projection
BlakeCategoryJames
4HR →6
36R ←31
7RBI →10
7SB →14
.219AVG ←.163
Current Season
BlakeCategoryJames
1HR ←0
10R ←9
2RBI →3
2SB →4
.269AVG ←.161
What Each Player's System Trusts
Blake Dunn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.353 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.263 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
James Outman
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.201)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 40% is stable and high — caps the floor
Blake Dunn: 4 HR / 36 R. James Outman: 6 HR / 31 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).