Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryMatt
2HR →5
22R22
30RBI ←26
12SB ←7
.234AVG →.241
Current Season
BrandonCategoryMatt
0HR →3
9R →10
12RBI12
5SB ←3
.294AVG ←.240
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Lockridge
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
Matt Shaw
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.300)
Brandon Lockridge: 2 HR / 22 R. Matt Shaw: 5 HR / 22 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).