Rest of Season Projection
BryanCategoryTroy
12HR ←8
58R ←38
57RBI ←41
6SB ←5
.254AVG →.297
Current Season
BryanCategoryTroy
6HR ←2
39R ←23
38RBI ←25
4SB ←3
.276AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryan Reynolds
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.367, +0.052 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Bryan Reynolds: 12 HR / 58 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).