Rest of Season Projection
BurchCategoryHoby
34K ←24
3.70ERA ←3.78
1.24WHIP ←1.25
0–0W →1–2
0SV →1–2
Current Season
BurchCategoryHoby
20K ←12
3.18ERA →2.49
1.47WHIP →1.03
0W →1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Burch Smith
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.29)
Hoby Milner
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.41 is 1.42 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Smith projects 34 K with a 3.70 ERA, outpacing Milner's 25 K and 3.78 ERA. The strikeout gap and verdict direction align: hold Smith, sell Milner.