Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryChristian
15HR ←8
44R →53
54RBI ←45
8SB8
.263AVG ←.210
Current Season
CaseyCategoryChristian
12HR ←4
27R ←21
33RBI ←18
5SB ←3
.289AVG ←.275
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Schmitt
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Casey Schmitt: 15 HR / 44 R. Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).