Rest of Season Projection
ChadCategoryMatt
55K ←39
3.74ERA →3.69
1.39WHIP →1.24
2–6W ←1–2
1–5SV ←1–3
Current Season
ChadCategoryMatt
34K ←27
2.54ERA ←4.68
1.20WHIP ←1.24
3W ←1
2SV ←1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chad Patrick
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.76 is 1.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Matt Festa
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.37)
Chad Patrick: 55 K / 3.74 ERA. Matt Festa: 39 K / 3.69 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).