MLB Daily DeltaWeek 14 · June 30, 2026
Portrait of Chris Paddack
Chris Paddack
TEX · P
Change to
Matt Waldron
SD · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Matt Waldron.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA, WHIP, and wins. Chris Paddack’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Matt Waldron wins 3 categories (ERA, WHIP, W); Chris Paddack wins 1 (K); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Chris Paddack
92.9
Matt Waldron
91.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Chris Paddack
10.5%
Matt Waldron
8.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Chris Paddack
15.7%
Matt Waldron
20.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Chris Paddack
32.6%
Matt Waldron
31.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Chris Paddack
37.8%
Matt Waldron
39.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Chris Paddack
8.0%
Matt Waldron
7.6%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Chris Paddack
.342
Matt Waldron
.306
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Chris Paddack
2.338.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.90
4.63
Matt Waldron
2.338.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.49
4.09
WHIPlower is better
Chris Paddack
1.141.87
now 1.71
1.43
Matt Waldron
1.141.87
now 1.71
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Chris Paddack
4075.20
now 35
60
Matt Waldron
4075.20
now 22
54
Winshigher is better
Chris Paddack
.0004.20
now 0
00
Matt Waldron
.0004.20
now 1
23

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellChris Paddack — hold.conf 0.60
Buy LowMatt Waldron — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90
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