Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryDominic
8HR →9
52R ←45
45RBI →54
7SB ←0
.212AVG →.297
Current Season
ChristianCategoryDominic
4HR →5
21R21
18RBI →25
3SB ←0
.275AVG →.325
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Dominic Smith
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.364)
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Dominic Smith: 9 HR / 45 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).