Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategoryPaul
79K →109
3.79ERA →2.49
1.33WHIP →1.07
4–9W →6–12
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategoryPaul
45K →75
2.39ERA ←2.89
1.10WHIP →0.86
4W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.79 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.49, 1.61 below league — production is earned
Clay Holmes: 79 K / 3.79 ERA. Paul Skenes: 109 K / 2.49 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).