Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryPaul
105K →126
4.44ERA →2.28
1.30WHIP →1.04
6–12W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryPaul
57K →75
2.95ERA →2.89
1.16WHIP →0.86
5W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).