MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 22, 2026
Portrait of David Bednar
David Bednar
NYY · P
Change to
Portrait of Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

David Bednar.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Riley O'Brien’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

David Bednar wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Riley O'Brien wins 2 (W, SV).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
David Bednar
96.0
Riley O'Brien
98.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
David Bednar
16.2%
Riley O'Brien
11.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
David Bednar
27.5%
Riley O'Brien
23.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
David Bednar
39.6%
Riley O'Brien
28.8%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
David Bednar
36.7%
Riley O'Brien
40.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
David Bednar
3.7%
Riley O'Brien
7.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
David Bednar
.257
Riley O'Brien
.332
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
David Bednar
2.685.02
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.50
3.66
Riley O'Brien
2.685.02
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.20
3.75
WHIPlower is better
David Bednar
.9001.82
now 1.58
1.24
Riley O'Brien
.9001.82
now 0.99
1.25

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
David Bednar
4034.60
now 29
25
Riley O'Brien
4034.60
now 27
22
Winshigher is better
David Bednar
.2003.80
now 1
11
Riley O'Brien
.2003.80
now 3
23
Saveshigher is better
David Bednar
3.8018.20
now 12
713
Riley O'Brien
3.8018.20
now 14
815
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeDavid Bednar — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeRiley O'Brien — hold.conf 0.50
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