Rest of Season Projection
DerekCategoryLawrence
7HR →9
29R →32
20RBI →27
20SB ←8
.208AVG →.224
Current Season
DerekCategoryLawrence
3HR3
9R →17
6RBI →14
6SB ←4
.234AVG ←.164
What Each Player's System Trusts
Derek Hill
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.296)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Lawrence Butler
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.210 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Derek Hill: 7 HR / 29 R. Lawrence Butler: 9 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).