Rest of Season Projection
GordonCategoryJake
21K →30
3.87ERA →3.70
1.27WHIP →1.24
3–8W ←1–3
1–2SV ←0
Current Season
GordonCategoryJake
14K →20
1.80ERA ←5.00
0.90WHIP ←1.33
4W ←1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gordon Graceffo
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.163 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.57 is 3.43 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jake Bird
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.04 sits 0.06 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.364 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Gordon Graceffo: 21 K / 3.87 ERA. Jake Bird: 30 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).