Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategorySam
30K →35
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–3W ←1–2
0SV →1–2
Current Season
JakeCategorySam
20K →26
5.00ERA →2.49
1.33WHIP →1.07
1W1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake Bird
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.04 sits 0.06 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.364 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Sam Moll
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.79 is 0.90 above the ERA — regression coming
Jake Bird: 30 K / 3.70 ERA. Sam Moll: 35 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).